We've got tonight....

So it looks at this point that the show itself will have more surprises than the winners, but I'm hoping I'm kind of wrong. Not in all categories. Just in some? Here's my "will" and "should" picks for tonight:

Best Pic:

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Milk

I truly think our children will be astonished if MILK doesn't win Best Pic as they'll all be required to see it in history classes when studying civil rights. It's also - incidentally - by FAR the best film on the list. The Slumdog love affair will, I think, look very naive and silly...it's the CRASH of this year.

Best Actor:
Will Win: Mickey Rourke
Should Win: This is an exceptionally impressive category, there'd be no one I'd be unhappy with winning. Rourke will give the best speech and by a slim margin Penn is the "should" winner.

Sean Penn is one of my least favorite all-time (over)actors. But his work in MILK is subtle and seamless. It's the best performance of his career. He's unrecognizable in it. I would have to vote for him in good conscience (which I did for the Indie Spirit Awards), but I'm perfectly happy for a Rourke win.

Best Actress:

Will Win: Winslet
Should Win: Winslet

There's a weird scenario where Streep and Winslet split and Leo or Hathaway surprises. But it's likely Winslet's LONG OVERDUE night finnnaaalllyyyy and I'm very much looking forward to it!!! :)

Best Supporting Actor:

Will Win: Heath Ledger
Should Win: Heath Ledger

Nuff said.

Best Supporting Actress:

Will Win: Penelope Cruz
Should Win: It's tight but I'm going to go with Viola Davis.

Tomei is astonishingly good in a role that no where near written as well as she plays it. Everyone else is terrific, including Cruz (who in some ways gave this same solid performance in BLOW) but I'm pulling for Davis who manages to convey - not a string of subtext - but a full TAPESTRY of subtext in a few short minutes. It's the best short story you've ever read and it's all in her face.

Best Director:
Will Win: Boyle
Should WIn: Fincher

Boyle's work is impressive. It is. But Fincher actually achieves the most impressive technological feat presently imaginable in cinema and he does it all to serve the story, the humanity and the sometimes brutal truth of life and death and everything in between, without EVER pointing out his own prowess (unlike Boyle) and saving the films most powerful moments from the surges of sentimentality in the script.

Adapted Screenplay:
Will win: Slumdog
Should win: Doubt

This is a pretty middling category actually. The screenplay is the thing I have the most problem with in Slumdog, but it's pretty much a shoo-in here. If this is BUTTON's "consolation prize" I may be inconsolable as the screenplay is singlehandedly the worst thing about it.

Original Screenplay:

Will Win: Milk
Should Win: Milk

In fact, if it doesn't win - then wherever you are - you will hear a vague screaming and smashing coming from somewhere in Brooklyn....

Best Documentary:

Will Win: Man on Wire
Should Win: Encounters at the End of the World

Otherwise expect lots of well deserved technical awards for Button and annoying amounts of self-congratulations for the love affair with Slumdog (as if that somehow makes the Academy "humanitarians by proxy")... Last note: If Dark Knight wins Sound Editing I might break something. It's got TERRIBLE gaps and sticky mixes all over it.

Enjoy!!!! :-)